By David K. Shipler
President
Trump’s decision to violate the Iran nuclear accord is giving rise to competing
forecasts: Iran’s moderates will be discredited, the hardliners will gain sway,
the country will resume its rush to develop nuclear weapons and spark a nuclear
arms race in the region, Iran’s military actions outside its borders will
increase, and the United States will no longer be trusted to keep its word in
international agreements. Or, Iran’s economic suffering will worsen, leading to
regime change as Trump hopes, and curbing the country’s support of bad actors
from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Or, in yet another possibility,
the United States will be isolated, for better or worse, as Europe finally acts
in unison to go its own way.
Most of
these scenarios depend on the behavior of Iran, which has become the Middle East’s
Number One Nuisance. To paint a picture, it’s worth listing some of the opportunities
missed and the new ones that have now arisen.
Missed Opportunities.
1. Seeing
vividly the divided American views on the nuclear agreement, which had so
little support that President Obama could not even submit it to the Senate for
ratification, and then hearing Trump’s promise to scuttle it, Iran might have
tempered the two activities that generated the most resentment and opposition: its
ballistic-missile development program and its strategy of expanding its
influence into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and elsewhere. Instead, the Revolutionary
Guard and other hardline factions, which control those cross-border policies, increased
arms transfers and moved military assets into Syria in what looks increasingly
like a forward deployment threatening Israel.
2. Iran
might have toned down its anti-Israel rhetoric and avoided marching into
confrontation with Saudi Arabia, which simply reinforced conservative Americans’
resentment over ending sanctions against Tehran.
