By David K. Shipler
When Vladimir Putin sent Russian
troops into Ukraine three years ago, he made several bets that might have
seemed like sure things to him then. One, that Ukraine would quickly fold. Two,
that the United States had no staying power. Three, that Europe was too
fractured to mount effective resistance.
Ukraine has
fought valiantly, however. The US under President Biden mustered huge supplies
of weaponry and diplomatic support. Europe united to provide even more aid than the US. And instead of crumbling, NATO added two new members, Sweden
and Finland.
Nevertheless, Putin’s gamble finally
began paying off last week, thanks to his admirer Donald Trump, who is so
obviously volatile that next week might be different. Putin once labeled him
unpredictable. By contrast, the Russian leader has the patience of a chess
master—albeit an emotional player, as I wrote in the Washington
Monthly two months before the invasion.
His long game relies on a wish and
a belief: his wishful, messianic ambition to expand and restore a Russian
empire, and his passionate belief that Western democracies are vulnerable to
moral decay, internal disorder, and external subversion.
He is acting in both these
dimensions simultaneously, and now has a willing (or unwitting) partner in
President Trump.
Russia has tried to accelerate the decline of democracies by exacerbating domestic divisions with online disinformation during elections, which probably helped elect Trump in 2016. Moscow is promoting pro-Russian parties in Germany and other NATO states, a Russian interference campaign that has been joined by Elon Musk and Vice President J. D. Vance, who have championed rightwing European parties with neo-Nazi sympathies.
