Judging by polls and interviews, a large minority of
Americans have been gullible enough to believe President Trump when he has boasted
of big breakthroughs in resolving the trade war with China, the hot war with
the Taliban, the twilight war between Israel and the Palestinians, the risk of
nuclear war with North Korea, and the disadvantageous trade relations with
Mexico and Canada. In reality, the “deals” he has touted are either
non-existent (North Korea), one-sided and fanciful (Israel), wishful thinking
(the Taliban), or marginal adjustments (China, Mexico, and Canada).
Let’s
take them one by one, beginning with the latest.
The War in Afghanistan. To his credit,
Trump has consistently sought to withdraw US troops from the endless war, a
politically popular position. And he has tried to do it with dignity. His
negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad, is a savvy American diplomat of Afghan origin who
displayed painstaking persistence in gradually bringing the Taliban along. The
heart of the bilateral deal is a U.S. troop withdrawal over 14 months in
exchange for a prohibition on the Taliban giving sanctuary to jihadists, as it
did to al-Qaeda before 9/11.
But the administration also failed to
include the Afghan government in the talks. That would have complicated
negotiations, probably pushing them past the American elections. The resulting
agreement was fragile and began to shred days after being signed. The Afghan government
refused to abide by the provision to release five thousand Taliban prisoners.
The Taliban responded by refusing to begin peace talks before the release. The
Taliban then attacked an Afghan army checkpoint, and the U.S responded with an
air strike on Taliban forces. Far from bringing a settlement to the country,
the agreement looks like a fig leaf to cover a U.S. withdrawal for Trump’s
political benefit.
Israel and the Palestinians. Here, too, a key player in the
conflict was excluded from discussion or consideration, which seems to be a
pattern in Trump’s methodology.
