By David K. Shipler
We
don’t know. That’s the honest answer.
In the bad old days of the Soviet
Union, Kremlinologists could estimate the pecking order of the grisly men (almost
always men) who made up the governing Politburo by observing how they lined up
atop Red Square’s Lenin mausoleum for the parade on November 7, the anniversary
of the Bolshevik Revolution. Or their positions as they walked into a
ceremonial hall. Or whose name adorned one or another declaration. Physical proximity
to the General Secretary of the Communist Party was a clue to influence and a
possible successor—and was watched closely by scholars, diplomats, and
journalists.
Inner
politics was encrypted then. Kremlinology was like a puzzle with only a few
visible pieces. But looking back, the Soviet Kremlin seems less opaque than
Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin today. There are no puzzle pieces now, only misfits or
blanks filled by deduction, guesswork, and wishful thinking.
Since Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin’s political standing at home has
been an obsession in the West, where conventional wisdom has ricocheted back
and forth. At first, he was a formidable foe, a canny calculator of military
and diplomatic maneuvers. Then, when his army stalled in the face of Ukrainian
resistance, he became a monstrous blunderer whose humiliation would surely
bring him down.
But as
he wielded his dictatorial powers to obliterate the remaining freedoms Russians
had gained since the Soviet collapse in 1991, Putin was the ruthless strongman,
unconquerable in the moment. As the war ground into a bloody stalemate, however,
and criticisms of the military escalated from the right, his pedestal showed
cracks.
Then, he was pronounced weakened
and vulnerable when units of Wagner, the private militia, slipped from under
his thumb and launched an abortive mutiny by marching toward Moscow. “How
Revolt Undermines Putin’s Grip,” said the lead New
York Times headline on June 25. The appraisal flipped two months later,
after the (presumably non-accidental) plane crash that killed Wagner’s leader,
Yevgeny Prigozhin. The lead Times
story declared: “Mutineer Dead, Putin Projects Image of Might.”
So, which is it? A Russian president in peril or in command?
