By David K. Shipler
We have
entered a period of flux in international alignments. After decades of relative
stability in the so-called “world order,” interests are being recalculated and
affinities revised. It is a risky, promising, uncertain time.
Vietnam and the United States, once
enemies, have just announced a comprehensive strategic partnership, whatever
that might mean. Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the cusp of putting aside their
longstanding antagonism in favor of diplomatic and commercial ties. The Saudis
and Americans are
exploring a mutual defense treaty. Russia seems poised to swap technology
for artillery shells from its problematic neighbor, North Korea, once kept at
arm’s length. Russia and China are making inroads in some mineral-rich African
countries, at the West’s expense. A rising China has adopted a forward military
posture, threatening Taiwan more acutely than in decades. Ukraine is lobbying
anxiously for its survival against Russian conquest as doubts about continuing
aid arise from a wing of Republicans in a party once hawkish on national
security.
Upheavals such as these will
require deft statesmanship. Both Beijing and Moscow are bent on denying
Washington what they call the American “hegemony” that has mostly prevailed
since World War Two. The Chinese and Russian leaders, Xi Jinping and Vladimir
Putin, proselytize for a multipolar world, which appeals to developing
countries resentful of post-colonial hardships. (Don’t they realize that Russia
is the more recent colonial power, fighting to reimpose its historic colonialism
on Ukraine?)
The global turmoil has tossed up a
key choice for Americans: How engaged or how withdrawn shall we be? How
entangled? How aloof? This will be an unwritten question on next year’s
ballots. Both Putin and Xi will be watching. They surely hope for victory by
the American neo-isolationism represented by hard-right Republicans—including
Donald Trump. No such administration would stand astride the shifting tectonics
of the emerging globe.
Ukraine is a litmus test. No matter the obscenities committed by Russia against helpless civilians. No matter Russia’s martial expansionism in the heart of Europe. No matter the mantle of democracy and freedom proudly worn by the United States. The extreme Republican right is playing on the ethnocentrism of its base and a weariness of foreign involvements.
