By David K. Shipler
You’d
think with all the hand-wringing in Washington over Russia’s foray into the
quagmire of Syria that some Middle Eastern plum was about to fall into Russia’s
lap—at American expense. And so it would be if the Cold War rivalry were still
operating, when every gain by one superpower was considered an equivalent loss
by the other. But that’s not the case now, and it’s time for both Russia and
the United States to abandon the zero-sum game in favor of a more carefully
calibrated set of calculations.
The two
countries’ interests are not identical, their strategies differ, and their
motives diverge. They are headed for a proxy war, each arming different
factions. But their fundamental national security concerns overlap
significantly, and both would surely find solace in a stable Syria—even a
secular dictatorship—where ISIS, the Islamic State movement, had been crushed. American
ideals notwithstanding, a Jeffersonian democracy in Damascus is not in the
cards. So there is room for inventive Russian-American cooperation.
Vladimir
Putin doesn’t do democracy—not at home, not abroad. He doesn’t accept the
American faith that a pluralistic political system will naturally arise from
the ashes of a destroyed dictatorship. It is painful to recognize that he has a
point, at least as witnessed in Egypt, Libya, and Iraq. The next country on
that list would be Syria, should President Bashar al-Assad be overthrown. One
form of autocracy would surely be exchanged for another.
Putin comes out of a deep Russian
culture that abhors a power vacuum and fears anarchy—especially when they occur
in his own back yard.
