By David K. Shipler
A year
into Europe’s largest land war in nearly 80 years, the prospect of “winning”
remains not only elusive but—more telling—defined by wishful thinking rather than
military reality.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine seems
capable of achieving its ambitious aims. Perhaps, looking far into the future,
Russia will succeed in taking over all of Ukraine. Or perhaps Ukraine will
manage to expel Russian forces from its entire territory, including Crimea and
the eastern Donbas region that Moscow grabbed in 2014. Perhaps. But so far, neither
scenario looks possible.
Instead, Russia and Ukraine are
locked in a conflict of mutual loss. Russia is losing its soldiers and weapons,
its global standing, its economic vitality, its modicum of cultural and
political freedom, and hundreds of thousands of talented citizens who are
fleeing abroad. Convicted prisoners, freed to fight, are coming home, along
with traumatized troops bearing shame and emotional scars. Russian society is
being wounded.
Ukraine is losing population to
death and migration, its houses and bridges and factories and farms, its energy
grid, its medical system, and its reliable independence. If it survives, it
will be hobbled by neediness and severe militarization. The coming generation
will not easily erase the terrors endured in childhood.
Yet there is talk of “victory.” What that means today is certainly not what will be claimed eventually in whatever compromise may be reached, for this war—unlike Vietnam and the two World Wars—is not susceptible to the categorical defeat of either side. Both portray it as a clash of virtues and values, a colossal contest over the entire international order.