By David K. Shipler
It is
impossible now, in the maelstrom of information and disinformation swirling
around Donald Trump and Russia, for the United States to deliberate reasonably
about its relationship with Moscow. It could happen if Trump were just slightly
nuanced and sophisticated, because he is clearly disposed to patching things up
with Putin. That would be a good thing if the open hand were accompanied by a
clenched fist, to be raised when necessary.
Oddly, though, Trump cannot summon
an unkind word about Russian policy and behavior, possibly because he sees the
world in black and white, is consistently blind to shades of gray, and is determined
to overturn all the tables and chairs of conventional thinking in Washington. He
has thus polarized, not persuaded, and has helped fuel a dangerous hysteria about
Russia in the national security and political establishment. It is reminiscent
of the Cold War, when the Moscow-Washington global competition was viewed as a
zero-sum game, with every gain by one seen as an equivalent loss by the other.
But the Russia-US relationship
today is not a zero-sum game. It includes intelligence sharing on terrorism,
the potential for joint efforts in Syria, collaboration in space and science, work
on climate change and preserving the Arctic, and on. The relationship is an
intricate tangle of conflict and cooperation, of clashing and mutual interests,
of risks and rewards. Hillary Clinton clearly understood this. So, it seems,
does Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, as indicated in his
Senate confirmation hearing. But the President-elect shows no sign of seeing
the cross-currents or looking past his next move. He plays checkers while Putin
plays chess.
Did Putin authorize the hacking of
the Democratic National Committee’s emails? The FBI, the CIA, and the NSA say
yes; Trump said emphatic no’s until his press conference this week, when he
acknowledged that Russia might have done it. But a small group of former US
intelligence agents have organized to express their conviction that the emails
were leaked, not hacked, and that the evidence of Moscow’s involvement was “thin gruel,” as it was called by Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst, and William
Binney, a former ranking technical specialist for the NSA.
Still, the consensus in Washington
and the press that Russia did the hacking raises the next question: Why? To
damage Clinton and help Trump in the campaign? The intelligence agencies say
yes, mostly citing open-source Russian media as evidence—plus some intercepted Russian
cheers after Trump’s victory.
But one has to wonder if Putin is really
short-sighted enough to prefer an impulsive, erratic US president with his hand
on the nuclear button, a man who can switch on nastiness when offended. Putin may
have despised Clinton for allegedly fomenting protests over ballot rigging in
his 2012 re-election, but a smart Russian leader would have to recognize Clinton
as a more stable and dependable adversary—tough, yes, but schooled in realistic
assessments of the opportunities and limits of foreign policy.
Then, did Russia’s supposed
preference for Trump actually change votes? The DNC emails distributed by
WikiLeaks contained nothing earthshaking: officials preferring Clinton over
Bernie Sanders, some complaining about her as an inadequate candidate. “Fake
news” about the Clinton Foundation’s ethical lapses was reportedly spread by
Russian media in the US.
Russia was out “to undermine the
US-led liberal democratic order,” say the intelligence agencies in their public
report, “the promotion of which Putin and other senior Russian leaders view as
a threat to Russia and Putin’s regime.” The Russian leader had complained that
the release of the Panama Papers, which cast aspersions on some of his
associates, and the disclosure of Russian doping of Olympic athletes, were
American capers to damage Russia’s reputation. Russia is reportedly poised to
influence German and French elections in favor of nationalist, rightwing parties.
But no adequate research exists to
document that enough votes in the US were changed by the release of hacked
emails. And even if they were, then the fingers that have been pointed at Putin
should also be turned around and pointed at ourselves, at American voters too
lazy or too biased to do any critical thinking, check sources, and drill into
the truth. In the end, only American voters, not agents in Moscow, can be the
downfall of American democracy.
Finally, how much truth—if any—is contained
in the 35 pages of memos sent to the FBI by Christopher Steele, a former MI6
British agent who once worked under diplomatic cover in Moscow? Hired by a
Republican opponent of Trump and then by Clinton’s campaign, Steele portrays a
concerted effort, which he deems successful, to ensnare Trump in a web of
wrongdoing involving sex, corruption, and coordination with Russian officials
during the campaign. Trump heatedly denied any of it, and no news organization
after months of trying has been able to verify a single piece of the story.
As anyone who has lived in Moscow
knows, both during Soviet and post-Soviet times, the KGB, now the FSB, indulges
routinely in tricks designed to entrap foreigners in compromising situations. A
US military attaché in Soviet days told me, almost misty-eyed, about an
approach made to him by a beautiful young woman. He was canny enough to know
what was going on and to refuse, while wishing he could have accepted. American
journalists and business executives were also targets.
So, if Russian intelligence had not
attempted—the key word is attempted—to lure Trump as a wealthy visiting American
businessman into compromising situations, it would have been the first time in
history that Moscow had passed up such a chance. Trump hasn’t acknowledged any
such attempts, which hollows out his emphatic denials. Why doesn’t he describe
the Russians’ efforts, which can often be clumsy and obvious? Did they really
make no approaches? If so, did he steadfastly refuse? Or can he be blackmailed?
Washington is buzzing with speculation.
The unverified assertions have been
lent plausibility by Trump’s predatory sexual behavior and his ethical
indifference. From what we have learned of him, the details don’t seem entirely
out of character. That doesn’t make them true, as we should remind ourselves.
The trouble with all this is that
it generates bipartisan anti-Russianism, which blocks the conduct of sensible
foreign policy. Russia is a complicated country, and Putin is a wily operator
who harbors the age-old Russian complex about the West’s disdain and the
hazards of geopolitical encirclement. The West’s unwise expansion of NATO into
Eastern Europe, to Russia’s border, has ignited paranoia in Moscow, and a
quarter-century after the humiliating collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin
appears bent on regaining, at least to a point, the reach of the Russian empire
from Central Asia to Eastern Europe.
Given Trump’s doubts about the
virtue of NATO and his nonchalance about Russia’s annexation of Crimea and instigation
of warfare in eastern Ukraine, Putin might see a real opening in his chess
game. As a former KGB agent trained in flattery, blackmail, and manipulation, he
seems to have a taste for recruiting people, attempting to enmesh foreign
leaders in a web of deference, dependence, and affinity.
Perhaps he regards Trump’s vanity
and naiveté as offering opportunity. Perhaps he reads Trump accurately, for a
normal American politician facing all this suspicion about his collaboration
with Russia would want to rebut it with a demonstration of hawkishness. To
bolster his credentials, he would want to find a way to confront Putin. Trump
has shown no such inclination.
A nasty backlash has been unleashed
in Washington, less so in the American heartland.
The Gallup poll’s graph of favorable vs. unfavorable attitudes toward Russia over time
shows lines undulating dramatically, from nearly a decade of favorable ratings
beginning with the reformist Mikhail Gorbachev and extending into the early
post-Soviet era of embryonic democracy. Then the lines crossed, with the negative
side soaring until 65 percent expressed an unfavorable view of Russia in 2016.
At the end of last year, an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found 55 percent of
Americans bothered “a great deal” or “quite a bit” by the gathering evidence
that Russia had hacked the DNC’s emails. As in other areas of life, the
country’s polarization was acute, with 86 percent of Democrats bothered, but only
29 percent of Republicans. In Congress, though, the outrage spreads across the
aisle.
A return to a reasonable balance between
repelling and respecting Russia, between guarding the West’s security and
building on areas of mutual interest, depends on qualities the next
administration has yet to acquire: calm expertise and an ability to think a few steps ahead
about cause and effect. Mr. Trump, it’s your move.
I like the imagery of Trump "determined to overturn all the tables and chairs of conventional thinking in Washington." Wonderful! - because it rings so true - about Trump in general.
ReplyDeleteI like the tone of this piece - searching and hoping for a balance between peace and appropriate wariness - and defense! Written by someone who knows! I think I'll send this on to my various Russian friends.
Thanks.
Thoughtful, insightful, balanced, and so well-written. What's so frightening about Trump extends far beyond his sychopantjc treatment of Putin. It burns like acid--with more poured onto us and our nation every day--impacting our daily lives and our hopes for a better future.
ReplyDeleteSeveral lines of poetry here: "He plays checkers while Putin plays chess," my favorite, and "if the open hand were accompanied by a clenched fist." But what intrigues me most here are the dots - the FSB routinely tries to trap foreigners in compromising situations; Trump denies any such attempts were made targeting himself; and Trump hasn't responded to the implications of the situation with any anti-Russian bluster - which, if connected, persuade me that sometime in the next four years, when his minion in the USA disappoints him, Putin is going to treat us to some juicy Trump videos that will make the Access Hollywood video look tame. Maybe then we'll finally see poetic justice. I'll save some popcorn just in case.
ReplyDelete