By David K. Shipler
Please
forgive the cynicism, but here’s a prediction: For all the heartfelt hand-wringing
and passionate calls to action since the Newtown massacre, Americans will not
be made safer from gun violence. After a year or five years (let’s give
Congress plenty of time), the country will still be awash in firearms, they
will still be available to many untreated mentally ill people, and mass
shootings will still occur on occasion, probably even in schools. Guns exist in
a perfect storm of politics, law, and culture not easily revised.
In the most optimistic scenario,
the Second Amendment might serve as an asset to those favoring modest controls,
for under recent Supreme Court rulings, gun ownership is no longer jeopardized.
Recognizing an individual right to bear arms rather than one based only in state
militias, the thin conservative majority has effectively eliminated what the
National Rifle Association and its supporters saw as the dire threat that all
guns would eventually be outlawed and taken from the hands of law-abiding
citizens.
That cannot happen as the Second
Amendment is now interpreted. In both District of Columbia v. Heller (2008) and
McDonald v. City of Chicago (2010), a 5-4 majority ruled that the right to keep
a loaded gun at home was protected by the Second Amendment. Whether the right
extends to handguns outside the home remains uncertain until the justices
consider cases that have been decided differently in lower courts.